- The Reds are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Reds vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Marlins TV Channel: BSOH | BSFL | ESPN+
The Cincinnati Reds (-175) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+145) on Thursday, August 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Reds are 55-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 54-61 ATS.
Reds vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 8-4, 2.83 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Kyle Tyler 0-2, 5.34 ERA
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 -110 | O 7.5 -110 | -175 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | U 7.5 -110 | +145 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 63.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 27 games (+22.60 Units / 84% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+15.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 14 of his last 23 away games (+14.60 Units / 63% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Hunter Greene has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 33 games (+28.85 Units / 87% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+18.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+17.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 29 games (+17.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+16.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 98 games (+8.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+7.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 away games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 59 games at home (+23.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 110 games (+7.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 63-51 against the Run Line (+6.2 Units / 4.12% ROI).
- 55-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -4.59% ROI
- 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -9.21% ROI
- 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.48% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 54-61 against the Run Line (-24.36 Units / -16.13% ROI).
- 43-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.6 Units / -12.87% ROI
- 63-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.8 Units / 7.73% ROI
- 49-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -15.33% ROI
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
| Kyle Tyler (MIA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
58% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (83-for-455) against Hunter Greene this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 97th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of just .297 (135 Total Bases / 455 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .391 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of just .289 (65 Total Bases / 225 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .405 — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Tyler has limited playing time.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 30-34 (.469) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 40-22 (.645) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 14-14 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 23-10 (.697) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Marlins are just 13-23 (.361) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Reds hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .337 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins hitters have drawn 175 walks in 2,875 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (1,366 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 3 of 106 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 14% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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