Royals vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 29, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (107-48) are favorites vs the (107-48)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (4-8), 4.86 ERA
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5), 4.36 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Kansas City Royals () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Royals vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 63-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 73-81 ATS.

Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals O
Tigers U

Royals vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Tigers vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 away games (+18.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 23 away games (+17.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+14.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Miguel Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Tucker Barnhart has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Tigers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Akil Baddoo 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Harold Castro 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Javier Baez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Riley Greene 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Tigers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Akil Baddoo 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Harold Castro 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Javier Baez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Riley Greene 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Tigers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Akil Baddoo 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Harold Castro 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Javier Baez 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Riley Greene 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Tigers vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jon Heasley 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
Eduardo Rodriguez 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 60 away games (+12.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games (+3.80 Units / 9% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 78-77 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -5.51% ROI).

  • 63-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.9 Units / -9.66% ROI
  • 75-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -3.7% ROI
  • 74-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -5.28% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 73-81 against the Run Line (-19.8 Units / -10.17% ROI).

  • 62-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -5.35% ROI
  • 59-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.8 Units / -18.66% ROI
  • 83-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.2 Units / 11.35% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .103 (4-for-39) against Jon Heasley — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .080 (2-for-25) against Jon Heasley — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (228/418) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (26/165) against Jon Heasley when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Eduardo Rodriguez: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.8 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 399.2

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (46/255) against Eduardo Rodriguez on non-fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .370 (44 GB hits out of 119 GBs) against Eduardo Rodriguez with runners on base since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 0 Percentile.

The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez against right-handed batters since the start of 2020 is 381.8 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 399.8

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Royals are just 3-72 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Royals are just 4-39 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Royals are just 24-50 (.324) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Royals are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Tigers are just 6-64 (.086) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Tigers are 12-0 (1.000) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Tigers are just 30-47 (.390) on the road this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Tigers are just 15-43 (.259) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Royals hitters are slugging just .381 against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .993 (2,259 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

Royals hitters are averaging just 3.80 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Royals hitters are slugging just .367 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .276 (4,113 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .602 (4,113 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .290 (2,751 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (5,570 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,163 of 12,109 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have walked 123 of 1,361 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 67% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Tigers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D60
  • Joe Jiménez (Tigers): Back, D15
  • Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Willi Castro (Tigers): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Mental Health, D60
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Forearm, D60
  • Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Back, D10
  • Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.