The Detroit Tigers (+150) visit JetBlue Park at Fenway South to take on the Boston Red Sox (-185) on Thursday, February 29, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers, FL.
This season, the Tigers are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 3-1 ATS.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +150 |
| Red Sox | -185 |
Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andy Ibanez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+5.90 Units / 197% ROI)
- Ryan Kreidler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Akil Baddoo has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andre Lipcius has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+2.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+4.90 Units / 102% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 78 away games (+16.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 78 away games (+16.52 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.79 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Tigers are 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.6 Units / 57.78% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 16.33% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -2.33% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -4.44% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 3-1 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 38.84% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -22.47% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 34% (111/325) against Reese Olson with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — fourth Percentile.
Reese Olson allowed a BABIP of .244 against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters had a chase rate of 33% (51/154) against Reese Olson when he was behind in the count in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
87% of Reese Olson’s called strikeouts were low against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock walked 13 of 304 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock allowed a BABIP of .342 in the 2023 season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — fifth Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock’s lowest spin rate on changeups since last season is 1732.0 RPM — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1200.5
Garrett Whitlock had a strike rate of 68% (815/1,195) in the 2023 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Tigers were 31-9 (.775) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Tigers are just 20-126 (.137) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Tigers are just 19-85 (.183) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Tigers are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers batted just .241 on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .300 (741 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Tigers batted just .211 on pitches 95 mph or greater in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Tigers hitters slugged just .171 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers had an ERA of 2.93 (464.0 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
The Tigers won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (119.5 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
The Tigers have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
- Dillon Dingler (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Riley Greene (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, Out
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Mason Englert (Detroit Tigers): Hip, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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