- The Twins are +105 favorites vs the Padres
- Twins vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Padres TV Channel: BSNO | PDTV
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Wednesday, August 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Twins are 70-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 66-61 ATS.
Twins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 4-3, 3.80 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 7-10, 4.31 ERA
Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -210 | O 8.5 -120 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +170 | U 8.5 +100 | -125 |
Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games (+29.50 Units / 140% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.95 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 49 games (+25.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+13.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 106 games (+8.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+1.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games (+16.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 95 games (+10.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 61-65 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -3.76% ROI).
- 70-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI
- 65-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 3.5% ROI
- 55-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.85 Units / -12.21% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 66-61 against the Run Line (+7.3 Units / 4.62% ROI).
- 72-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.85 Units / 4.21% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.35 Units / -13.03% ROI
Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Simeon Woods Richardson in his last two starts — tied for 6th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (7-for-42) against Simeon Woods Richardson in his last two starts — tied for 11th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (10/35) against Simeon Woods Richardson in his last two starts — tied for 12th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 13th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .291 (48 Total Bases / 165 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .409 — 96th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (22/82) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has thrown off-speed pitches 65% of the time (372/577) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (26/109) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (19/90) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are 196-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 128-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 25-93 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 53-7 (.883) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Padres are 13-10 (.565) after a road loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Padres are 67-54 (.554) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 42-28 (.600) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .770 (3,471 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .800 (2,257 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Twins are batting .264 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have 184 extra-base hits out of 417 total hits (44%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 236 strikeouts in 1,362 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 837 strikeouts in 4,780 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 601 strikeouts in 3,418 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 66 of 1,119 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 762 of 10,682 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Padres pitchers this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (7,003 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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