- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 10-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 8-9 ATS.
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 +100 | -110 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -120 | -110 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.65 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.15 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 10-6 against the Run Line (+4.6 Units / 23.83% ROI).
- 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 22.78% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -39.72% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 32% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -5.91% ROI).
- 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -13.06% ROI
- 11-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 23.72% ROI
- 6-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -33.77% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 45% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (35/78) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (10-for-60) against Sonny Gray this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 92nd Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 50% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (303/607) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out 40% (18/45) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Sale has allowed an OPS of 1.484 (18 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .692 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 41% (15/37) against Chris Sale this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of .964 (27 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .478 — first Percentile.
Chris Sale has had second base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 5-14 (.263) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-28 (.300) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-60 (.130) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 20-36 (.357) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Red Sox are just 3-4 (.429) on the road this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Red Sox are 41-25 (.621) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Red Sox are just 9-12 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .163 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .203 (301 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .660 (491 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (587 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .452 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .540 (50 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have 2 extra-base hits out of 19 total hits (just 10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 54% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 8 of 142 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 38% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (722.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
The Red Sox have allowed 0.94 runs per game (16/17) in late innings this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed 24 home runs this season — 5th most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Side, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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