- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Reds starting pitcher: Fernando Cruz
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Minnesota Twins (-130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+110) on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Twins vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 79-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 92-60 ATS.
Twins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | O 9.5 -120 | -130 |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | U 9.5 +100 | +110 |
Twins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joe Ryan has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 away games (+9.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+17.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+12.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+12.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Reds vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Cruz | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -130 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 61 games (+13.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 away games (+10.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 130 games (+23.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 92 of their last 151 games (+22.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games (+17.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 76 games at home (+12.38 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.62 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 75-76 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -0.89% ROI).
- 79-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.8 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 76-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -0.83% ROI
- 70-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -7.48% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 92-60 against the Run Line (+21.6 Units / 10.65% ROI).
- 79-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.75 Units / 9.47% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -2.51% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (23/94) against Kenta Maeda on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (5/23) against Kenta Maeda — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has allowed at least one HR in each of his last 11 games dating back to July 19th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Kenta Maeda has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (26/49) — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 39% (77/198) against Fernando Cruz this season — 4th best among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 96th Percentile.
Fernando Cruz has a strikeout rate of 58% (88 SO in 151 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Fernando Cruz has a strikeout rate of 35% (88 SO in 251 PAs) this season — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .173 (22-for-127) against Fernando Cruz this season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 95th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Twins are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Reds are just 39-44 (.470) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Reds are just 45-36 (.556) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 13-59 (.181) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Reds are just 15-20 (.429) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .478 (3,181 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Twins hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters are slugging .729 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .598.
The Twins are batting just .148 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters are slugging just .183 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Reds are batting just .141 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 416 of 5,618 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have walked 89 of 1,355 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have walked 132 of 1,356 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 262 of 2,783 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D60
- Luke Maile (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Reds): Groin, D10
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Correa (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Foot, D10
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