- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins / Royals TV Channel: BSNO | BSKC
The Minnesota Twins () visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Twins are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 0-1 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | O | ||
| Royals | U |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s game with 54.9% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.05 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cole Ragans has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Cole Ragans has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.35 Units / 167% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 away games (+11.39 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+12.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 130% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 80% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (144/435) against Joe Ryan in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a swing rate of 57% (708/1,249) against Joe Ryan in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 71% (884/1,249) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 69% (1,849/2,683) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 13% (6/45) against Seth Lugo in late innings in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3217.9 RPM on curveballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2529.5 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters last season (10th best among qualified RPs)– 90th Percentile.
Seth Lugo threw his curveball 41% of the time (196/474) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 16-50 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins are just 23-58 (.284) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Twins were 33-11 (.750) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 11-84 (.116) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Royals were just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals were just 7-43 (.140) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Twins batted just .183 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals won just 38% of games in which they have scored first on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Freddy Fermin (Kansas City Royals): Finger, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- John McMillon (Kansas City Royals): Forearm, Out
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Out
- Brad Keller (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Back, Out
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
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