Super Bowl Prop Bets: Predictions for Super Bowl 59

It’s officially Super Bowl week. Super Bowl 59 is fast approaching, which means millions of bettors are studying trends and placing bets.

Fortunately, the BetMGM online sportsbook has hundreds of NFL odds for the Big Game, including dozens of individual props for yardage, touchdowns, field goals and more.

Below, prospective bettors can find my player prop predictions for Super Bowl 59. All numbers and prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Head to a Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction for analysis and my best bets for Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.

Super Bowl Prop Bets

DeAndre Hopkins Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Based on Hopkins’ lack of snaps since Marquise Browns’s return and the Eagles’ strong pass defense, I predict Hopkins stays Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125). 

Hopkins enjoyed a strong run of results from Week 9 through Week 16. In those eight games, he cleared this number every time. 

But Hopkins’ decline coincided perfectly with the return of Brown. Over his last three games, he produced yardage totals of seven, zero and 11 yards. 

Hopkins faced two teams eighth or better in pass defense DVOA in the postseason, including a Houston defense a spot ahead of Philadelphia in pass defense DVOA. 

He’s also played only 28 offensive snaps in the playoffs after clearing that number alone in Week 17.

It’s also a nightmare spot for Hopkins against a strong Eagles secondary. 

The Eagles deployed three players – Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay – on at least 50% of coverage snaps. 

All three ranked 18th or better in the NFL in PFF’s coverage grades. 

Plus, where the Eagles struggle through the air is against top wide receivers. 

Philly ranks 24th in DVOA against such receivers compared to first, seventh and third, respectively, against WR2’s, WR3’s and tight ends. 

Those records should see Hopkins continue to struggle. Back him to finish under this total for the fourth straight game. 

A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Based on Brown’s strong record against man coverage and his yardage outputs against the scheme this year, I predict Brown finishes Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115). 

According to PFF, Brown leads the NFL in receiving grade against man coverage. 

His 37.4% target share against the scheme ranks second in the NFL and tops the Eagles amongst players with at least 90 targets. 

In Super Bowl 59, he’ll face a Chiefs defense that ranks seventh in man coverage percentage. 

Kansas City also ranks 26th in DVOA against WR1’s and 17th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

This season, Brown played three games against teams ranked 10th or higher in man coverage percentage: Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Jacksonville. 

Brown cleared this number in two of those three contests, booming for at least 100 yards against the Steelers and Browns. 

Irrespective of opponent scheme, Brown cleared this number in nine of 16 games this year. Two years ago in Super 57, Brown caught eight catches for 96 yards against the Chiefs. 

As a result, grab the over on Brown’s receiving yards. 

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-105)

Based on the Chiefs’ ability to pressure the quarterback and their struggles against mobile quarterbacks, I predict Hurts’ longest rush is Over 12.5 Yards (-105). 

There’s a question about mobility for Hurts, who is 10-8 to the over against this number for the season. 

But there should be an expectation of sustained pressure from Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. 

Entering Super Bowl 59, Kansas City ranks fifth in PFF’s pressure grades. 

Hurts played six games against teams 10th or better in that category this season. He cleared this number four times in those six contests. 

Plus, Hurts’ experience against the Chiefs should allow him to clear this number like he did two years ago. 

Although his longest rush last year in Kansas City amounted to 10 yards, Hurts reeled off 15 carries for 70 yards with a long of 28 in Super Bowl 57. 

The Chiefs also struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks this season. 

Albeit in a limited sample, they allowed both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen to clear this number in all three of those contests. 

Of even greater concern, though, is that Kansas City allowed long rushes to run-second quarterbacks. For example, C.J. Stroud notched longs of 12 and 28 yards in two games. 

Based on those outputs, back Hurts to clear his longest rushing prop. 

Super Bowl Player Props

In the cases of star players, bettors can find myriad prop angles available, depending on the position.

For example, a running back’s props include total rushing yards, longest rush and even the player’s first rushing attempt. Meanwhile, a wide receiver props include receiving yards, receptions and longest reception.

Below are examples of player props for Saquon Barkley and Patrick Mahomes. Additionally, bettors can find public betting data for these players’ individual prop markets.

Public betting data is reflective as of Tuesday, Jan. 28.

Saquon Player Props: Super Bowl 59

Patrick Mahomes Player Props, Public Betting