Super Bowl Prop Bets: Predictions for Super Bowl 59

It’s officially Super Bowl week. Super Bowl 59 is fast approaching, which means millions of bettors are studying trends and placing bets.

Fortunately, the BetMGM online sportsbook has hundreds of NFL odds for the Big Game, including dozens of individual props for yardage, touchdowns, field goals and more.

Below, prospective bettors can find my player prop predictions for Super Bowl 59. All numbers and prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

In search of additional Super Bowl content? Head to a Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction for a game pick and get the latest Super Bowl odds in our content hub.

Additionally, get the latest Super Bowl MVP odds and an Anytime Touchdown prediction for the game.

Super Bowl Prop Bets

DeAndre Hopkins Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Based on Hopkins’ lack of snaps since Marquise Browns’s return and the Eagles’ strong pass defense, I predict Hopkins stays Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125). 

Hopkins enjoyed a strong run of results from Week 9 through Week 16. In those eight games, he cleared this number every time. 

But Hopkins’ decline coincided perfectly with the return of Brown. Over his last three games, he produced yardage totals of seven, zero and 11 yards. 

Hopkins faced two teams eighth or better in pass defense DVOA in the postseason, including a Houston defense a spot ahead of Philadelphia in pass defense DVOA. 

He’s also played only 28 offensive snaps in the playoffs after clearing that number alone in Week 17.

It’s also a nightmare spot for Hopkins against a strong Eagles secondary. 

The Eagles deployed three players – Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay – on at least 50% of coverage snaps. 

All three ranked 18th or better in the NFL in PFF’s coverage grades. 

Plus, where the Eagles struggle through the air is against top wide receivers. 

Philly ranks 24th in DVOA against such receivers compared to first, seventh and third, respectively, against WR2’s, WR3’s and tight ends. 

Those records should see Hopkins continue to struggle. Back him to finish under this total for the fourth straight game. 

A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Based on Brown’s strong record against man coverage and his yardage outputs against the scheme this year, I predict Brown finishes Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115). 

According to PFF, Brown leads the NFL in receiving grade against man coverage. 

His 37.4% target share against the scheme ranks second in the NFL and tops the Eagles amongst players with at least 90 targets. 

In Super Bowl 59, he’ll face a Chiefs defense that ranks seventh in man coverage percentage. 

Kansas City also ranks 26th in DVOA against WR1’s and 17th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

This season, Brown played three games against teams ranked 10th or higher in man coverage percentage: Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Jacksonville. 

Brown cleared this number in two of those three contests, booming for at least 100 yards against the Steelers and Browns. 

Irrespective of opponent scheme, Brown cleared this number in nine of 16 games this year. Two years ago in Super 57, Brown caught eight catches for 96 yards against the Chiefs. 

As a result, grab the over on Brown’s receiving yards. 

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-105)

Based on the Chiefs’ ability to pressure the quarterback and their struggles against mobile quarterbacks, I predict Hurts’ longest rush is Over 12.5 Yards (-105). 

There’s a question about mobility for Hurts, who is 10-8 to the over against this number for the season. 

But there should be an expectation of sustained pressure from Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. 

Entering Super Bowl 59, Kansas City ranks fifth in PFF’s pressure grades. 

Hurts played six games against teams 10th or better in that category this season. He cleared this number four times in those six contests. 

Plus, Hurts’ experience against the Chiefs should allow him to clear this number like he did two years ago. 

Although his longest rush last year in Kansas City amounted to 10 yards, Hurts reeled off 15 carries for 70 yards with a long of 28 in Super Bowl 57. 

The Chiefs also struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks this season. 

Albeit in a limited sample, they allowed both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen to clear this number in all three of those contests. 

Of even greater concern, though, is that Kansas City allowed long rushes to run-second quarterbacks. For example, C.J. Stroud notched longs of 12 and 28 yards in two games. 

Based on those outputs, back Hurts to clear his longest rushing prop. 

Patrick Mahomes Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Based on the Eagles’ strong defensive record against good offenses and Mahomes’ record against good defenses, I predict Mahomes will finish Under 252.5 Yards (-115). 

Mahomes stayed under this number only nine times in 18 regular + postseason games. However, he’s running into arguably his strongest pass defense of the season. 

Philadelphia ranks second in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. They’ve accomplished that feat against teams averaging a pass offense DVOA rating of 15.3. 

Vic Fangio’s defense simultaneously ranks second in dropback EPA per play and dropback success rate on plays, excluding turnovers. 

This game marks only the third time this season Mahomes faces a defense fifth or better in all three of those categories. 

In the previous two – both against Houston – Mahomes passed for 260 and 177 yards with the latter output coming in the divisional round. 

Conversely, the Eagles played seven games against teams 10th or better in pass offense DVOA since Week 8. Five of those quarterbacks stayed under this number. 

Given the Chiefs ranked 11th in that category, take the under on Mahomes’ passing yardage prop.

Neither Team to Score 30+ Points (+100)

Based on the sell-high spot for both offenses, particularly the Eagles, I predict Neither Team Scores 30 or More Points (+100). 

Most bettors will remember the 38-35 explosion in Super Bowl 57. However, that game was ripe for points based on team profiles. 

In 2022, Philadelphia owned a good defense that played easy offenses. Per ftnfantasy.com, the Eagles ranked third in defensive DVOA against the second-easiest set of offenses. 

That spelled trouble against a Chiefs offense first in offensive DVOA. 

At the same time, Philadelphia’s third-ranked DVOA offense faced a Chiefs defense ranked 14th in defensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest set of offenses. 

The same can’t be said this year, largely because of Philadelphia’s metrics. 

The Eagles rank 13th in offensive DVOA against the easiest set of defenses while leading the league in defensive DVOA against the 16th-hardest schedule of offenses. 

Kansas City has scored 30 or more only three times. Against teams 10th or better in defensive DVOA, it becomes zero successes. 

While the Eagles have scored 30 or more seven times, the level of defensive competition must be considered. 

Six of those seven successes came against a team ranking 23rd or worse in defensive DVOA. The only exclusion? All the way back in Week 1 against Green Bay. 

On Sunday, they’re encountering a Chiefs defense that allowed 30 or more only once outside Week 18. 

As a result, grab the plus-money and back neither team to reach 30 points. 

Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-105)

Based on the Chiefs’ struggles against tight ends and Goedert’s emergence in the playoffs, I predict Goedert clears 19.5 Yards as his Longest Reception (-105). 

Everyone and their mother knows the Chiefs can’t defend tight ends. But the fact Goedert Over Receiving Yards is the most bet player prop at BetMGM forces some creativity. 

That leads me to his longest reception. This season, opposing tight ends have cleared this number 12 times in 18 games against the Chiefs outside of Week 18. 

Of the six failures, two saw the opposing tight end’s longest reception land on either 18 or 19 yards. 

One additional note worth considering: in those 12 successes, opposing tight ends have notched a long reception of 30 or more yards seven times. 

Onto Goedert. The Eagles tight end has cleared this number in all three postseason games with longest receptions of 24, 31 and 26 yards. 

Goedert failed to feature against the Chiefs last season, but he thrived in Super Bowl 57. In that game, he caught six catches for 60 yards with a longest reception of 17 yards. 

That Chiefs defense ranked 18th in yards allowed against tight ends. This season, Kansas City sits 31st in that category. 

As a result, take Goedert to clear his longest reception for the fourth straight contest. 

Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-115) | 2+ Touchdowns (+600)

Based on Hurts’ success against Kansas City and his touchdown percentage this season, I predict Hurts scores a touchdown on Sunday (-115). 

Whether you’re a fan of the tush push or not, there’s no denying Hurts will receive opportunities to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 59. 

Plus, Hurts ran for three touchdowns in Super Bowl 57 and followed it with a two touchdown performance against Kansas City last season. 

Dating back to the 2022 season, Hurts proved a touchdown machine for the Eagles. He’s cashed his anytime touchdown ticket 36 times in 54 games, a 66.7% hit rate. 

Yet, these odds suggest Hurts’ implied probability to score a touchdown is 53.5%. That strikes me as a bit low for a quarterback who scored 12 times in 18 games just this season. 

If you trust Hurts to score a touchdown in this game, history also suggests he could score multiple times. 

Within that 54-game sample, Hurts scored multiple touchdowns 12 times, a 22.2% hit rate. At +600, the implied probability of Hurts scoring multiple touchdowns is 14.3%. 

Given he’s scored multiple touchdowns in both meetings against Kansas City – albeit without Saquon Barkley – these prices are worth bets. 

Jalen Hurts to Win Super Bowl MVP (+375)

If Hurts goes off as expected and plays to the same level as in Super Bowl 57, I predict Hurts Wins Super Bowl MVP (+375). 

There’s a current narrative, from my perspective, that the only way for Philadelphia to win this game is for Saquon Barkley to go off against Kansas City. 

But that discounts the fact that Hurts, if not for a fluky fumble, likely leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl 57 win and probably claims MVP honors. 

Dating back to 2022, Hurts’ Super Bowl 57 performance against the Chiefs registers as the best game of his entire career, based on PFF grading.

Plus, there’s a feasible script where it’s the Eagles aerial performance that wins them the game. 

The Chiefs rank 17th in pass defense DVOA and play a healthy dose of man coverage. 

The issue? Hurts excels against man coverage. If the Chiefs deploy zone and try to blitz, it opens the door for Hurts to utilize his legs. 

Let’s also remember a long time has passed since a running back won this award. 

Not since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl 32 has a running back won MVP. Since Super Bowl 45, quarterbacks have taken home the award 10 times in 14 tries. 

As a result, Hurts is worth a bet at +375 to claim the honor.

Super Bowl Player Props

In the cases of star players, bettors can find myriad prop angles available, depending on the position.

For example, a running back’s props include total rushing yards, longest rush and even the player’s first rushing attempt. Meanwhile, a wide receiver props include receiving yards, receptions and longest reception.

Below are examples of player props for Saquon Barkley and Patrick Mahomes. Additionally, bettors can find public betting data for these players’ individual prop markets.

Public betting data is reflective as of Sunday, Feb. 9 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Saquon Player Props: Super Bowl 59

Patrick Mahomes Player Props, Public Betting