Bills vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:10 PM

The Bills are -2.5 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 41 points
Watch this game on ESPN

The Buffalo Bills (3-2-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-3-0) on Oct. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Bills vs. Jets Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bills	-2.5 -110	41 -110	-145
Jets	+2.5 -110	41 -110	+120

Bills vs. Jets Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 62.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Jets Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 65.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
Khalil Shakir has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Curtis Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today

Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Tyler Conklin has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 78% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 36% ROI)
Jeremy Ruckert has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 46% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have scored last in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 44% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+1.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 57% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.65 Units / 39% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.50 Units / 16% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.55 Units / 12% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 2-3 (-1.2 Units / -22.22% ROI).

Bills are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 14.81% ROI
Bills are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -25% ROI
Bills are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Jets are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -36.11% ROI
Jets are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI
Jets are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Bills were winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Bills were 11-6 (.647) last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Jets are winless (0-7) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .431.

The Jets are 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — T-7th-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 23 passes since the 2023 season — 4th-most in NFL.

The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Jets were 5-4 (.556) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

The Jets ran successful plays on just 28.6% of rush attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts last week — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Jets have averaged just -0.15 epa per play in the second half since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.14 epa per play in the second half since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Jets have averaged just -0.19 epa per play against a base rush since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.08 epa per play with a base rush since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 50.5% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on 49.4% of rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Bills ran successful plays on just 22.7% of pass attempts against a base front last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Jets allowed successful plays on just 32.0% of pass attempts with a base front last week — 4th-best in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on just 36.8% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 31.4% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills went three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Bills ran successful plays on 20% of pass attempts in Week 5 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets averaged 11.8 drives per TD last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Jets ran successful plays on 29% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets averaged -0.03 epa per play on first read passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

The Jets averaged -0.21 epa per play on the road last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense have allowed -1.29 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.45.

The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Bills defense have allowed -0.25 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of plays against play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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