Colts vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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Louisiana monroe warhawks athlete holding the ball staring away from the camera. The player is in an light orange kit.

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:51 AM

The Jaguars are -3 point favorites vs the Colts
Total (Over/Under): 46 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (2-2-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Jacksonville, FL.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Colts vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colts	+3 -115	46 -110	+130
Jaguars	-3 -105	46 -110	-155

Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 57.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 62.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 90% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.95 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 65% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Trevor Lawrence has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.50 Units / 48% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 36% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 18% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.35 Units / 15% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Colts are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -3.23% ROI
Colts are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Colts are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Jaguars are 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -100% ROI
Jaguars are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Jaguars are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Colts are winless (0-9) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .142.

The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.

The Colts were 1-8 (.111) when allowing 22 or more points last season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .223.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars are winless (0-4) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Jaguars are winless (0-4) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .436.

The Jaguars were undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.

The Jaguars were 5-2 (.714) when not losing a fumble last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 53.8% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 58.8% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have been successful on 48.4% of plays they have ran against a light rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed their opponents to be successful on 57.9% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Jaguars TEs have 145 receptions in 21 games (6.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 5.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Colts ran 22.2% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars allowed their opponent to run 20.6% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-worst in NFL.

Colts RBs have averaged just 1.4 yards after contact per carry this season — T-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 1.5 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — T-best in NFL.

The Colts have rushed the ball on 67.6% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-5th-most in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts have run successful plays on 58% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have thrown 54% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts converted first downs on just 61 of 279 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have turned the ball over on downs 8 times in the red zone since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have turned the ball over on downs 6 times this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 82% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 38% with tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 30% of pass attempts with tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense have allowed 0.49 epa per play against play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.04.

The Jaguars defense allowed 3 TD passes in close and late situations last season — T-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a passer rating of 142.6 against play action passes (37 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 97.0.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

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