- The Michigan is a -5.5 point favorite vs. Michigan State
- The Michigan State vs. Michigan Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
- TV Channel: BTN
The Michigan State Spartans (4-3) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (4-3) on Oct. 26 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).
The Michigan State vs. Michigan Over/Under is 40.5 total points.
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Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Michigan State | +5.5 -115 | 40.5 -110 | +175 |
| Michigan | -5.5 -105 | 40.5 -110 | -210 |
Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 65.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Michigan, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan State vs Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 67.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 30% ROI)
Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.60 Units / 1% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.60 Units / 26% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan State Player Prop Bets Today
- Montorie Foster Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nick Marsh has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kalel Mullings has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Tyler Morris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Davis Warren has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.15% ROI).
- Michigan State is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 27.62% ROI
- Michigan State is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Michigan State is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI).
- Michigan is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 1.19% ROI
- Michigan is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
- Michigan is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
Michigan State is undefeated (6-0) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .532
Michigan State is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513
Michigan State is undefeated (8-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685
Michigan State is undefeated (6-0) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .505
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
Michigan is 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .435
Michigan is undefeated (16-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .648
Michigan is 18-2 (.900) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .611
Michigan is 19-1 (.950) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685
Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Michigan
Michigan’s WRs has 178 receptions in 22 games (just 8.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s TEs has gained 1,413 yards on 120 receptions (11.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan’s TEs has 50 receptions in 7 games (7.1 per game) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 2.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 203 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.3% of attempts this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 1,622 yards on 123 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 203 attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.3% of attempts this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 1,622 yards on 123 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 1,622 yards on 123 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s RBs has averaged just 5.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS RBs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan’s WRs has 178 receptions in 22 games (just 8.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan WRs have averaged just 6.8 yards per reception (68 yards/10 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.5
Michigan Skill Players have averaged just 7.3 yards per reception (263 yards/36 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.9
Michigan TEs have 19 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan’s TEs has gained 1,413 yards on 120 receptions (11.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 18 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 6%.
Michigan State has tackled opponents for a loss on 45 of 243 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) this season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Michigan State opponents has averaged just 3.0 Passing Attempts per TD (68 Pass Attempts/23 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 3.7
Michigan State has allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten
Michigan State has allowed 23 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big Ten
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1
Michigan has sacked opponents 4 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 43 of 672 attempts (6%) since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Michigan has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 43 of 672 attempts (6%) since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 10%
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