Wisconsin vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM

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Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

The USC is a -15.5 point favorite vs. Wisconsin
The Wisconsin vs. USC Total(Over/Under): 51.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) visit United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans (2-1) on Sep. 28 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

USC is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-115).

The Wisconsin vs. USC Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Wisconsin vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Wisconsin	+15.5 -105	51.5 -115	+500
USC	-15.5 -115	51.5 -105	-700

Wisconsin vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 84.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Wisconsin and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wisconsin vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 65.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Wisconsin Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)

USC Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

USC has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)
USC has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)
USC have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Wisconsin players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wisconsin Player Prop Bets Today

Will Pauling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Tyler Van Dyke has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.35 Units / 75% ROI)
Jackson Acker has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Braedyn Locke has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Braedyn Locke has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for USC players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best USC Player Prop Best Bets Today

Zachariah Branch has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Lake McRee has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Miller Moss has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Miller Moss has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 59.7% ROI).

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Wisconsin is 9-2 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .647

Wisconsin is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .679

Wisconsin is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .685

Wisconsin is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

USC is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

USC is 3-4 (.375) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .507

USC is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .679

USC was 2-5 (.250) when not forcing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Matchup Notes for Wisconsin vs. USC

USC’s offense has thrown for 956 passing yards in 3 games (318.7 YPG) this season — 12th-best among FBS offenses. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 160.3 passing yards per game this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s TEs has 17 receptions in 3 games (5.7 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 2.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s TEs has 17 receptions in 3 games (5.7 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 13.3 receptions per game this season — 16th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s offense has thrown for 547 passing yards in 3 games (just 182.3 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense has allowed just 147.7 passing yards per game this season — 24th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s QBs has thrown for 547 passing yards in 3 games (just 182.3 YPG) this season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. USC’s defense has allowed just 147.7 passing yards per game this season — 24th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin has gained 547 yards on 56 receptions (just 9.8 YPR) this season — T-15th-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin WRs have averaged a touchdown every 19.6 receptions (235 Rec/12 TDs) since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.2

Wisconsin WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.2 receptions (19 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 1.9

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 22.3 receptions (334 Rec/15 TDs) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 22.3 receptions (334 Rec/15 TDs) since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.2

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs have averaged just 2.5 yards per reception (5 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.8

USC RBs have averaged 7.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,423 yards / 343 touches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

USC Skill Players have been targeted 25 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Big Ten Teams

USC WRs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin’s opponents has not attempted a two-point conversion (42 PATs) since the 2023 season– lowest in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Wisconsin has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 64 attempts (16%) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Wisconsin has forced 6 fumbles on 552 carries (92.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.2

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

USC has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.0

USC has allowed 3.7 touchdowns per interception (33 TDs allowed, and 9 INT) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.4

USC has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12.6

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 92% (12 completions/13 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 62%

USC has allowed opponents to catch 65 of 90 passes (72% Reception Pct) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 58%