- The are -105 favorites vs the Phillies
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier, 1.35 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 4.56 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Houston Astros (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Wednesday, November 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Philadelphia for this World Series game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Astros vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 114-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 91-84 ATS.
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -120 | -105 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 +100 | -115 |
Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s World Series Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s World Series matchup with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today, World Series
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 65 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 62 games at home (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+13.60 Units / 97% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+11.80 Units / 91% ROI)
Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
| Cristian Javier | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 100 of their last 159 games (+29.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 97 of their last 170 games (+28.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 107 of their last 156 games (+25.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 153 games (+16.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 116 games (+6.90 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 126 games (+19.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+13.08 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 16 games at home (+11.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games at home (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 91-81 against the Run Line (+12.2 Units / 6.01% ROI).
- 114-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.75 Units / 6.92% ROI
- 63-98 when betting on the total runs Over for -43.55 Units / -23.1% ROI
- 98-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.2 Units / 14.81% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 91-84 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- 97-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 89-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 79-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.6 Units / -9.17% ROI
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (27/129) against Cristian Javier on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Cristian Javier has struck out 38% (190/504) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has struck out 40% (104/263) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Cristian Javier’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 30 of 832 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (2,174/3,140) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 6-42 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents are hitting just .212 against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (711.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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