- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Astros vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Astros / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | SCHN
The Houston Astros (-130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Astros are 61-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 54-61 ATS.
Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 9-7, 4.03 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton 9-3, 4.46 ERA
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +120 | O 10 -105 | -130 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 10 -115 | +110 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 away games (+22.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+16.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.05 Units / 64% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.85 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 41 games (+18.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+16.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+20.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 115 games (+6.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 115 games (+6.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 58-58 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.63% ROI).
- 61-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -5.92% ROI
- 46-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.1 Units / -21.36% ROI
- 67-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.2 Units / 12.6% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 54-61 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -9.59% ROI).
- 61-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 0.39% ROI
- 60-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 4.3% ROI
- 50-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.55 Units / -12.29% ROI
Red Sox vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Red Sox vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton (BOS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .412 (89-for-216) against Hunter Brown in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .323 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (50/171) against Hunter Brown on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .293 (54-for-184) against Hunter Brown when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — eighth Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .319 (461 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 12th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has walked 46 of 361 right-handed batters (13%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 22 of 180 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 50 of 434 batters (12%) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 25 of 167 batters (15%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 182-25 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Astros are just 10-19 (.345) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 115-32 (.782) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 5-184 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Red Sox are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 50-10 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
16% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (691/4,388 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .262 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Red Sox hitters have 379 strikeouts in 1,356 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .551 in hitter’s counts over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .354.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Astros pitchers this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have walked 421 of 4,363 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 168 of 2,471 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 313 of 4,379 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 63 of 1,036 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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