- The Cardinals (73-54) are -125 favorites vs the Braves (79-49)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-5), 3.95 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (9-9), 3.10 ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-125) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Braves vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 77-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 69-55 ATS.
Braves vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Braves vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 68 of his last 116 games (+20.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 78 games (+18.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 40 away games (+17.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+13.10 Units / 119% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+12.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 46 games at home (+17.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 46 games at home (+17.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games at home (+14.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+12.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 102 games (+24.52 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+6.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 104 games (+5.35 Units / 5% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 66-59 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.32% ROI).
- 77-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 5.02% ROI
- 63-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 2.42% ROI
- 54-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.2 Units / -11.1% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 69-55 against the Run Line (+12.1 Units / 7.82% ROI).
- 70-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 5.09% ROI
- 58-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.75 Units / -7.16% ROI
- 61-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -1.78% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (790/1,645) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (8/84) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (496/987) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (698/1,554) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (78/255) against Adam Wainwright this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (675/1,161) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (192/1,071) against Adam Wainwright this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (71/405) against Adam Wainwright this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Braves are 70-14 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Braves are 44-10 (.815) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 42-24 (.636) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cardinals are 41-22 (.651) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Cardinals are 61-19 (.762) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Cardinals are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 59-3 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .669 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .801 (1,295 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves hitters are slugging .445 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .798 (2,350 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .553 on the road this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Cardinals hitters have 233 extra-base hits out of 544 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.1).
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this month (25 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 118 double plays in 937 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The longest HR allowed by the Cardinals pitchers this season traveled 494.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Jackson Stephens (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
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