- The Braves (44-33) are -275 favorites vs the Reds (26-49)
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (7-2), 2.76 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-4), 7.71 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-275) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+220) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Braves vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 44-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 33-42 ATS.
Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -2.5 -110 | O 9.5 -110 | -275 |
| Reds | +2.5 -110 | U 9.5 -110 | +220 |
Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 63 games (+24.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 65 games (+16.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 63 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 46 of his last 65 games (+15.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 58% ROI)
Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Max Fried | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 51 games (+16.82 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 27 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+3.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 49 games (+1.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 39-38 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -2.52% ROI).
- 44-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
- 40-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 3.67% ROI
- 34-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -11.99% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 33-42 against the Run Line (-15.4 Units / -16.28% ROI).
- 26-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.95 Units / -22.3% ROI
- 42-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 8% ROI
- 32-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -17.73% ROI
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (118 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (139 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Opponents are hitting .322 (28-for-87) against Max Fried on inside fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 15th Percentile.
Max Fried has walked 16 of 376 batters (4%) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
22 of Mike Minor’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .610 (89 Total Bases / 146 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .404 — 0 Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to June 3rd — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 8.
Opponents are hitting .356 (52-for-146) against Mike Minor with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 20-16 (.556) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Braves are 37-10 (.787) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds are just 0-40 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Reds are just 22-4 (.846) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Reds are just 8-38 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Reds are just 5-39 (.114) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have 217 extra-base hits out of 502 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .737 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves hitters are slugging .520 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of .326 (6,569 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Reds hitters are slugging just .338 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .344 (4,379 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 37 double plays in 594 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (313.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Reds have allowed 5.94 runs per game (208/35) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
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