Braves vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 1

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (44-33) are -275 favorites vs the Reds (26-49)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (7-2), 2.76 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-4), 7.71 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-275) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+220) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Braves vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 44-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 33-42 ATS.

Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-2.5 -110O 9.5 -110-275
Reds +2.5 -110U 9.5 -110+220

Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 63 games (+24.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 65 games (+16.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 63 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 46 of his last 65 games (+15.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.50 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 58% ROI)

Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Donovan Solano 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Joey Votto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jonathan India 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Donovan Solano 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Joey Votto 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Jonathan India 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Donovan Solano 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Joey Votto 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jonathan India 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Minor 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Max Fried 5.5 -145 5.5 +100
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 51 games (+16.82 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 27 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 62 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 49 games (+3.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 49 games (+1.45 Units / 3% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 39-38 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -2.52% ROI).

  • 44-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
  • 40-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 3.67% ROI
  • 34-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -11.99% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 33-42 against the Run Line (-15.4 Units / -16.28% ROI).

  • 26-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.95 Units / -22.3% ROI
  • 42-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 8% ROI
  • 32-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -17.73% ROI

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (118 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (139 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Opponents are hitting .322 (28-for-87) against Max Fried on inside fastballs this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 15th Percentile.

Max Fried has walked 16 of 376 batters (4%) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.

Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

22 of Mike Minor’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .610 (89 Total Bases / 146 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .404 — 0 Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to June 3rd — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 8.

Opponents are hitting .356 (52-for-146) against Mike Minor with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 20-16 (.556) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Braves are 37-10 (.787) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Reds are just 0-40 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Reds are just 22-4 (.846) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Reds are just 8-38 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Reds are just 5-39 (.114) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

Braves hitters have 217 extra-base hits out of 502 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .737 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Braves hitters are slugging .520 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .326 (6,569 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Reds hitters are slugging just .338 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .344 (4,379 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .321.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 37 double plays in 594 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (313.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

The Reds have allowed 5.94 runs per game (208/35) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.

Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.