Braves vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (46-33) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (26-51)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 4.72 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 3.31 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Atlanta Braves (-175) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Braves vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 46-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 33-44 ATS.

Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -105O 8.5 +100-175
Reds +1.5 -115U 8.5 -120+145

Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 65 games (+28.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 41 of his last 67 games (+18.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 43 of his last 65 games (+18.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 47 of his last 67 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 43 of his last 64 games (+14.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 54% ROI)

Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Joey Votto 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Matt Reynolds 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Nick Senzel 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Joey Votto 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Matt Reynolds 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Mike Moustakas 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Nick Senzel 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Joey Votto 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Matt Reynolds 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Nick Senzel 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Castillo 6.5 -130 6.5 -110
Charlie Morton 6.5 +120 6.5 -165
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 53 games (+18.82 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 67 games (+5.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 51 games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 41-38 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.49% ROI).

  • 46-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 1.51% ROI
  • 41-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 3.4% ROI
  • 35-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -11.7% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 33-44 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -18.01% ROI).

  • 26-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.95 Units / -24.18% ROI
  • 43-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 7.6% ROI
  • 33-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -17.3% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (23/93) against Charlie Morton this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 37% (34/93) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (288/664) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (120/288) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (267/431) against Luis Castillo since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (164/281) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (14/91) against Luis Castillo when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 42% of the time (553/1,319) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 17-3 (.850) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Braves are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Reds are just 12-25 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Reds are just 25-37 (.403) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Reds are just 4-18 (.182) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

The Reds are just 0-44 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.

Braves hitters are slugging .736 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 509 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

Reds hitters have drawn 60 walks in 808 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Reds have allowed 1.96 runs per game (151/77) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 614 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 7.29 (105.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.

Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • James Farmer (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Hand, Day-to-Day

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.