- The Braves (46-33) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (26-51)
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 4.72 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 3.31 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Atlanta Braves (-175) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Braves vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 46-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 33-44 ATS.
Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 +100 | -175 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -120 | +145 |
Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 65 games (+28.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 41 of his last 67 games (+18.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 43 of his last 65 games (+18.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 47 of his last 67 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 43 of his last 64 games (+14.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 54% ROI)
Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 -110 |
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 53 games (+18.82 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 67 games (+5.90 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 51 games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 41-38 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.49% ROI).
- 46-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 1.51% ROI
- 41-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 3.4% ROI
- 35-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -11.7% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 33-44 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -18.01% ROI).
- 26-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.95 Units / -24.18% ROI
- 43-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 7.6% ROI
- 33-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -17.3% ROI
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (23/93) against Charlie Morton this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 37% (34/93) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (288/664) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (120/288) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (267/431) against Luis Castillo since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (164/281) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (14/91) against Luis Castillo when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 42% of the time (553/1,319) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 17-3 (.850) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.
The Braves are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds are just 12-25 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Reds are just 25-37 (.403) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Reds are just 4-18 (.182) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Reds are just 0-44 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .736 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.
Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 509 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .470 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Reds hitters have drawn 60 walks in 808 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds have allowed 1.96 runs per game (151/77) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 614 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 7.29 (105.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- James Farmer (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Hand, Day-to-Day
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