- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Brewers vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Brewers are 27-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 18-31 ATS.
Brewers vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Robert Gasser 2-0, 0.82 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-6, 5.75 ERA
Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -115 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -105 | +120 |
Brewers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 61.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+23.00 Units / 460% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+17.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+13.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+10.30 Units / 94% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+18.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+15.45 Units / 77% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+11.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+8.94 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 47 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+4.80 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 24-23 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -3.92% ROI).
- 27-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 12.53% ROI
- 28-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 14.45% ROI
- 19-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -22.37% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 18-31 against the Run Line (-19.86 Units / -31.05% ROI).
- 16-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -29.88% ROI
- 29-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.3 Units / 13.58% ROI
- 20-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -21.74% ROI
Marlins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Marlins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser (MIL) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Robert Gasser has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.0 innings pitched — Ryan Yarbrough has the longest active streak at 18.1.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (32/108) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (129/200) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OPS of .987 (130 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .675 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .579 (66 Total Bases / 114 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .377 — 0 Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 27-53 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 32-3 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers are 29-15 (.659) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Brewers are 41-98 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 112-29 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Marlins are just 42-54 (.438) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Marlins are 17-174 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 33-60 (.355) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging .429 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .768 (1,494 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .339 (1,494 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .406 (907 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Marlins hitters have 556 extra-base hits out of 1,799 total hits (just 31%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have chased 33% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (928.1 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (252.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Marlins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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