- The Reds (59-93) are +125 underdogs vs the Brewers (82-70)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (4-3), 3.45 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (4-7), 3.89 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Milwaukee Brewers (-155) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 82-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 71-80 ATS.
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 | O 8 -110 | -155 |
| Reds | +1.5 | U 8 -110 | +125 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+10.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 45 games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 59 away games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+7.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 65-87 against the Run Line (-29.75 Units / -16.2% ROI).
- 82-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.25 Units / -7.57% ROI
- 75-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.86% ROI
- 70-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -6.72% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 71-80 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -8.29% ROI).
- 59-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -10.67% ROI
- 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -2.77% ROI
Freddy Peralta: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .105 (8-for-76) against Freddy Peralta on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .093 (39-for-418) against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .187 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .087 (39-for-450) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting just .144 (72-for-501) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (98/319) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to August 23rd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 56% (9 SO in 16 PAs) with runners in scoring position this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 49% (40 SO in 81 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Brewers are 42-30 (.583) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Brewers are 108-35 (.755) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Brewers are 81-32 (.717) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .649.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Reds are just 11-72 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are just 11-40 (.216) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters have 407 strikeouts in 1,576 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .229 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 755 strikeouts in 3,140 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Reds are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Reds hitters are slugging just .414 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Reds hitters are slugging just .309 over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,183 of 11,998 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 566 of 5,799 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 251 of 2,772 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 91 of 818 batters (11%) this month (22 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
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