Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:43 AM
  • The Reds (59-93) are +125 underdogs vs the Brewers (82-70)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (4-3), 3.45 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (4-7), 3.89 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Milwaukee Brewers (-155) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5.

The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 82-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 71-80 ATS.

Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5O 8 -110-155
Reds +1.5U 8 -110+125

Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+10.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 45 games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 59 away games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+7.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 65-87 against the Run Line (-29.75 Units / -16.2% ROI).

  • 82-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.25 Units / -7.57% ROI
  • 75-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.86% ROI
  • 70-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -6.72% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 71-80 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -8.29% ROI).

  • 59-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -10.67% ROI
  • 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -6.74% ROI
  • 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -2.77% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .105 (8-for-76) against Freddy Peralta on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .093 (39-for-418) against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .187 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .087 (39-for-450) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting just .144 (72-for-501) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.

Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (98/319) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to August 23rd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 56% (9 SO in 16 PAs) with runners in scoring position this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 49% (40 SO in 81 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are 8-52 (.133) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Brewers are 42-30 (.583) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Brewers are 108-35 (.755) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Brewers are 81-32 (.717) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .649.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 5-74 (.063) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Reds are just 11-72 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Reds are just 11-40 (.216) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Brewers hitters have 407 strikeouts in 1,576 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Brewers are batting just .229 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds hitters have 755 strikeouts in 3,140 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Reds are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds hitters are slugging just .414 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.

Reds hitters are slugging just .309 over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,183 of 11,998 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 566 of 5,799 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 251 of 2,772 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 91 of 818 batters (11%) this month (22 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.