- The Reds are -110 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Caleb Kilian, 2.25 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Connor Overton, 14.85 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:05pm EDT in Goodyear.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Cubs are 9-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 5-7 ATS.
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -185 | O 10.5 +100 | -110 |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | U 10.5 -120 | -110 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aristides Aquino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Alejo Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 away games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 8-5 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 20.18% ROI).
- 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 19.35% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.7 Units / -37.5% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 29.49% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -18.6% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -19.08% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -5.64% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -4.96% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Caleb Kilian has not allowed a HR in any of his last three games started dating back to June 4th, 2022 — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 12.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Overton has not struck out a hitter in his last 35 PAs against a LHH dating back to May 12nd, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Connor Overton has not allowed a HR in any of his last four games started dating back to April 30th, 2022 — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 12.
Connor Overton had a strikeout rate of just 11% (4/35) over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — tied for 12th lowest among among 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
The last hit on a Connor Overton breaking pitch was May 17th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Drew VerHagen has the longest active streak at 21.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 4-86 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Reds are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are just 33-48 (.407) at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Cubs hitters put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters have 3,044 strikeouts in 12,044 PA’s (25%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Reds hitters had an OPS of just .676 (5,978 PA’s) last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) last season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
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