- The Guardians are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Guardians vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Brewers TV Channel: FOX
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-125) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Guardians are 72-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 64-58 ATS.
Guardians vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 10-4, 3.42 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 7-7, 4.14 ERA
Guardians vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -225 | O 7.5 -110 | +105 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +180 | U 7.5 -110 | -125 |
Guardians vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 48 games (+48.50 Units / 101% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 24 away games (+15.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+17.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+16.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+16.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games at home (+16.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 122 games (+14.37 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 away games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 64 away games (+2.65 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 118 games (+17.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 122 games (+11.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games at home (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+7.80 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 60-62 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.17% ROI).
- 72-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.37 Units / 9.2% ROI
- 59-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.15% ROI
- 56-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -6.62% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 64-58 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.2% ROI).
- 70-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 7.47% ROI
- 67-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +15 Units / 11.25% ROI
- 48-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.85 Units / -19.13% ROI
Brewers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Brewers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (64/199) against Tanner Bibee this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — eighth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tanner Bibee in the 2023 season was 380.0 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OBP of just .246 (207 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 88th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of .437 (83 Total Bases / 190 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 15th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 31% (149 SO in 485 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (450/769) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .210 (92-for-439) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has walked 18 of 216 batters (8%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 19th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians are 21-22 (.488) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Guardians are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Guardians are 201-6 (.971) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Guardians are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are 34-74 (.315) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 48-119 (.287) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 47-37 (.560) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .282 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Guardians have a winning percentage of 66% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 125 walks in 1,190 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 133 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians have allowed 0.86 runs per game (105/122) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .226 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.23 (811.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.64 (538.2 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.74 (1241.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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