- The Blue Jays are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | TVA | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-200) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Marlins are 59-100 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 78-81 ATS.
Marlins vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Oller 1-4, 4.98 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 16-10, 3.39 ERA
Marlins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | O 8 +100 | +165 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -120 | -200 |
Marlins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 50 games (+46.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+14.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Addison Barger has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games at home (+13.90 Units / 126% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 36% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 75 away games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 away games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 32 away games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 64 games (+2.80 Units / 4% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 55 games at home (+15.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+3.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 75-84 against the Run Line (-31.55 Units / -15.32% ROI).
- 59-100 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.05 Units / -10.31% ROI
- 84-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 6.16% ROI
- 67-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.5 Units / -14.04% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 78-81 against the Run Line (-16.75 Units / -7.79% ROI).
- 74-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.55 Units / -9.61% ROI
- 79-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -1.93% ROI
- 75-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -7.08% ROI
Blue Jays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jonah Bride (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Oller (MIA) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Oller has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to September 5th — Bryan Woo has the longest active streak at 7.
Adam Oller has walked 7 of 42 left-handed batters (17%) this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 9% — fourth Percentile.
Adam Oller had a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (20/27) in his last start — 8th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 90th Percentile.
Adam Oller has walked 5 of 36 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 12th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 57% of the time (691/1,210) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .215 (112-for-520) against Jose Berrios when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 93rd Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 19% (53 SO in 279 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .178 (59-for-332) against Jose Berrios’ non-fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 88th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Marlins are just 8-7 (.533) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 19-32 (.373) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 24-19 (.558) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 47-31 (.603) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Blue Jays are 40-34 (.541) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 16-37 (.302) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Blue Jays are just 6-70 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Blue Jays are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have 850 extra-base hits out of 2,729 total hits (just 31%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,931 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Marlins hitters have 313 extra-base hits out of 1,007 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .352 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Blue Jays hitters have a groundball batting average of just .208 against the shift this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .326 (9,512 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.85 (109.0 IP) at home this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.73.
Marlins pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 8 of 52 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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