- The Braves are -275 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Sunday, August 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 41-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 50-60 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-3, 6.65 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-5, 3.08 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 8 +100 | +220 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -120 | -275 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 69.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 29 games (+28.70 Units / 99% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+16.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+15.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+22.20 Units / 317% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 away games (+16.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 84 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 96 games (+30.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 52-59 against the Run Line (-23.51 Units / -16.15% ROI).
- 41-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -14.25% ROI
- 60-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.9 Units / 6.45% ROI
- 48-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.05 Units / -14% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 50-60 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -9.15% ROI).
- 60-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.1 Units / -8.96% ROI
- 39-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.9 Units / -27.38% ROI
- 66-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.9 Units / 18.77% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Orlando Arcia (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 125 of 921 batters (14%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 173 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 59% (401/675) when he’s behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 69% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 59 of 353 batters (17%) versus the top of the order since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 173 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 92 of 630 batters (15%) since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (182/307) against Max Fried this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (125/202) against Max Fried in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .490 (271 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 173 total IP; League Avg: .730 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (305/518) against Max Fried since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 10-16 (.385) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .633.
The Marlins are just 14-13 (.519) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 21-10 (.677) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are 19-91 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Braves are 23-83 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Braves are 52-27 (.658) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (2,810 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Marlins hitters have a swing rate of 52% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (3,986 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Braves are batting .303 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves hitters are slugging .467 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves hitters are slugging .464 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 382 of 4,260 batters (9%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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