- The Braves (83-51) are -275 favorites vs the Marlins (55-77)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (8-8), 3.63 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (12-5), 2.55 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 68-63 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | O 7 -105 | +220 |
| Braves | -1.5 -125 | U 7 -115 | -275 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 22 away games (+17.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jacob Stallings has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.75 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 62 of his last 84 games (+22.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+19.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 48 games at home (+18.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 70 of his last 122 games (+16.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 108 games (+27.42 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 65 games at home (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 60-70 against the Run Line (-20.8 Units / -12.08% ROI).
- 55-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.75 Units / -15.37% ROI
- 56-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -12.9% ROI
- 68-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 4.76% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 68-63 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -1.83% ROI).
- 81-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 4.44% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 0.69% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -9.4% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (91/231) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (137/356) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 45% of the time (228/505) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 36 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Pablo Lopez. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (161 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (88/152) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (182 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .235 (136 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Marlins are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 41-8 (.837) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Marlins are just 26-38 (.406) at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 74-15 (.831) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 31-4 (.886) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .625 (2,790 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .282 (2,790 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 777 strikeouts in 2,790 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .264 (1,094 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .847 (1,017 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.1).
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Jackson Stephens (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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