Marlins vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:38 AM
  • The Braves (83-51) are -275 favorites vs the Marlins (55-77)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (8-8), 3.63 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (12-5), 2.55 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 55-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 68-63 ATS.

Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 +105O 7 -105+220
Braves -1.5 -125U 7 -115-275

Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 22 away games (+17.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jacob Stallings has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.75 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 62 of his last 84 games (+22.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+19.75 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 48 games at home (+18.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 70 of his last 122 games (+16.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 108 games (+27.42 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 65 games at home (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 60-70 against the Run Line (-20.8 Units / -12.08% ROI).

  • 55-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.75 Units / -15.37% ROI
  • 56-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -12.9% ROI
  • 68-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 4.76% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 68-63 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -1.83% ROI).

  • 81-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 4.44% ROI
  • 65-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 0.69% ROI
  • 58-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -9.4% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (91/231) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (137/356) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 45% of the time (228/505) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 36 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Pablo Lopez. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (161 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (88/152) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (182 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 175 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .235 (136 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 93rd Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.

The Marlins are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Marlins are just 41-8 (.837) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Marlins are just 26-38 (.406) at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Braves are 74-15 (.831) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 31-4 (.886) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .625 (2,790 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .282 (2,790 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 777 strikeouts in 2,790 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .264 (1,094 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .847 (1,017 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.1).

Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Jackson Stephens (Braves): Concussion, D7
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.