- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-150) on Saturday, April 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Marlins are 4-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 14-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -105 | +125 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -115 | -150 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesus Luzardo has hit the Earned Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Hendricks has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jordan Wicks has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 84% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-14 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -47.08% ROI).
- 4-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -12 Units / -54.42% ROI
- 12-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.35 Units / 15.33% ROI
- 8-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -23.48% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 14-5 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 25.4% ROI).
- 12-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 27.78% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.71% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -8.65% ROI
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nick Gordon (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .968 (30 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.453 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .660 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .723 (34 Total Bases / 47 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .375 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .194 (56-for-288) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 94th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (9/41) against Shota Imanaga this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OBP of just .186 (59 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .313 — 99th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .175 (10 Total Bases / 57 ABs) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .395 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (4/42) against Shota Imanaga over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 107-29 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Marlins are 97-17 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are just 23-78 (.228) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are just 56-15 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 36-17 (.679) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Cubs are just 13-26 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are 52-29 (.642) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Cubs are just 34-38 (.472) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .517 (332 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .454 (222 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .573 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .962 (149 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Cubs are batting .313 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .388 (273 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 440.3
Marlins pitchers have walked 92 of 806 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (116.0 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 113.7).
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .232 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 11 double plays in 155 opportunities (7%) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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