- The Phillies (74-61) are -165 favorites vs the Marlins (55-79)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-10), 5.57 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (3-3), 4.08 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-65 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -115 | +140 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -165 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+2.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 75 of their last 130 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+1.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 61-71 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -11.98% ROI).
- 55-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.75 Units / -16.45% ROI
- 57-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -12.73% ROI
- 69-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 4.54% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.37% ROI).
- 73-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 0.96% ROI
- 67-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 0.89% ROI
- 60-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -9.08% ROI
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (120 Total Bases / 160 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .543 — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (129/423) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (11/17) against Trevor Rogers — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (61/336) against Trevor Rogers this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 37 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter’s has 12 strikeouts and no walks — tied for best in MLB K:BB ratio over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.8 — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 46 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strike rate of 73% (113/154) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Marlins are just 8-32 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Marlins are just 6-59 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Marlins are just 6-46 (.115) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .623 (2,809 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .263 (1,113 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .281 (2,809 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 784 strikeouts in 2,809 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,515 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .960 (69 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 16% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,167 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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