Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 07, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (74-61) are -165 favorites vs the Marlins (55-79)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (4-10), 5.57 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (3-3), 4.08 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 55-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-65 ATS.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -150O 7.5 -115+140
Phillies -1.5 +125U 7.5 -105-165

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 51 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jean Segura 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Bryce Harper 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jean Segura 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Bryce Harper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Edmundo Sosa 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jean Segura 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bailey Falter 5.5 -135 5.5 -105
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+2.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 75 of their last 130 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+1.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 61-71 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -11.98% ROI).

  • 55-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.75 Units / -16.45% ROI
  • 57-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -12.73% ROI
  • 69-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 4.54% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.37% ROI).

  • 73-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 0.96% ROI
  • 67-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 0.89% ROI
  • 60-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -9.08% ROI

Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (120 Total Bases / 160 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .543 — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (129/423) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (11/17) against Trevor Rogers — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (61/336) against Trevor Rogers this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.

Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 37 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Bailey Falter’s has 12 strikeouts and no walks — tied for best in MLB K:BB ratio over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.8 — 100th Percentile.

Bailey Falter has not walked any of the 46 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Bailey Falter has a strike rate of 73% (113/154) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Marlins are just 8-32 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

The Marlins are just 6-59 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Marlins are just 6-46 (.115) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .623 (2,809 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .263 (1,113 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .281 (2,809 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 784 strikeouts in 2,809 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Phillies are batting .173 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,515 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .960 (69 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 16% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH since the start of last season (7,167 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.