- The Twins are -190 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-190) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Marlins are 58-99 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 71-86 ATS.
Marlins vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 4-8, 5.20 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 5-5, 4.04 ERA
Marlins vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -105 | +155 |
| Twins | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -115 | -190 |
Marlins vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 48 games (+48.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+13.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+12.60 Units / 315% ROI)
- Simeon Woods Richard has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Simeon Woods Richard has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 73 away games (+16.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 away games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 30 away games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 91 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 71 games at home (+9.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 74-83 against the Run Line (-31.3 Units / -15.37% ROI).
- 58-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.2 Units / -11.14% ROI
- 82-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.8 Units / 5.08% ROI
- 67-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.35 Units / -12.96% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 71-86 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -9.68% ROI).
- 81-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.4 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 79-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 2.13% ROI
- 69-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.35 Units / -10.64% ROI
Twins vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Twins vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 96 of 730 batters (13%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 33 of 204 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 148 of 1,121 batters (13%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 49 of 396 batters (12%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 55 of Simeon Woods Richardson’s 240 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (67/182) against Simeon Woods Richardson in two-strike counts since last season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 4 double plays in 110 opportunities (4%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .404 (21 GB hits out of 52 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 23-18 (.561) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 8-7 (.533) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 17-39 (.304) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Marlins are just 19-32 (.373) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins are just 26-37 (.413) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are 62-26 (.705) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,633 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,928 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins hitters have 843 extra-base hits out of 2,705 total hits (just 31%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .754 (3,811 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .324 (9,065 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Twins hitters are slugging .230 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .777 (5,858 PA’s) at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 860 of 11,881 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 417 of 5,853 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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