- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | WPIX | ESPN+ | MLBN
The New York Mets (+135) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-160) on Friday, September 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Mets are 80-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-74 ATS.
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 8-9, 4.07 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 12-7, 3.44 ERA
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -105 | +135 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -160 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+15.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+12.10 Units / 151% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+14.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+13.70 Units / 137% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 87 games (+17.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 98 games (+14.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 88 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 away games (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 90 games (+9.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 65 games at home (+13.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+13.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 66 games at home (+13.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 64 games at home (+12.60 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 74-72 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 80-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 2.71% ROI
- 71-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -2.56% ROI
- 68-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -5.8% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 72-74 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -2.67% ROI).
- 88-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 68-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 72-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -2.09% ROI
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,506/2,543) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,187/2,020) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 56% (400/710) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 48% (418/861) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (386/1,096) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .146 (18-for-123) against Aaron Nola’s elevated fastball this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 91st Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (181/531) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 706 of Aaron Nola’s 1,527 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Mets are just 14-65 (.177) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are 22-14 (.611) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Mets are just 58-13 (.817) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 76-12 (.864) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 12-111 (.098) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have a winning percentage of 80% this month (10 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets hitters have just 4 strikeouts in 48 PA’s (8%) against LHP over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters are slugging .626 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,578 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .351 (1,716 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .306 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 80% this month (10 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 539 of 5,521 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 116 of 1,305 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Mets pitchers this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,130 of 11,605 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 390 of 5,441 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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