Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Mets (98-61) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (55-104)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-8), 4.30 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (12-5), 3.58 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-275) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 55-104 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-75 ATS.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 +105O 7.5 -120+220
Mets -1.5 -125U 7.5 +100-275

Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 away games (+23.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 50 games (+20.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 46 away games (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+24.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 away games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 24 away games (+10.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 78 away games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 92 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 72 games at home (+21.32 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 121 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 159 games (+6.95 Units / 3% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 71-88 against the Run Line (-23.75 Units / -12.44% ROI).

  • 55-104 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -10.13% ROI
  • 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -5.47% ROI
  • 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -2.67% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 3.5% ROI).

  • 98-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 84-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 5.12% ROI
  • 68-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -13.86% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .212 (11-for-52) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 97th Percentile.

Paolo Espino has averaged 88.5 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.

Paolo Espino has averaged 71.2 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .241 (54-for-224) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .169 — second Percentile.

Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .699 (58 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .691 (76 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .380 (35-for-92) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .224 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .699 (58 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Nationals are just 17-91 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 115-25 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Nationals are just 11-56 (.164) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are 41-11 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Mets are 51-27 (.654) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Mets are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 294 double plays in 2,313 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .486 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Mets are batting .455 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .347 (3,308 PA’s) when leading off an inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have just 1,191 strikeouts in 6,063 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have walked 82 of 1,413 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.