- The Mets are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Mets TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Nationals are 68-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 77-74 ATS.
Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 4-7, 3.69 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 9-9, 3.89 ERA
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 7 +100 | +145 |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -120 | -175 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Andres Chaparro has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.60 Units / 212% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+17.50 Units / 350% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+17.60 Units / 110% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 143 games (+10.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 away games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+8.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+22.72 Units / 142% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 92 games (+19.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 93 games (+14.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 84-67 against the Run Line (+6.43 Units / 3.24% ROI).
- 68-83 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 1.54% ROI
- 70-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -5.74% ROI
- 73-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.92 Units / -2.94% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 77-74 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.34% ROI).
- 83-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 3.27% ROI
- 74-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -1.93% ROI
- 70-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.25 Units / -6.31% ROI
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -175 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has allowed an OBP of just .253 (150 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 93rd Percentile.
Davidjohn Herz has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (331/1,065) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (76/188) against Davidjohn Herz on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (4-for-34) against Davidjohn Herz this month (2 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 98th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (420/738) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 49% (438/898) when ahead in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,229/2,085) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,568/2,637) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Nationals are just 59-232 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 96-58 (.623) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Mets are just 14-65 (.177) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are 10-132 (.070) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Mets are just 60-13 (.822) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Nationals are batting just .241 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .309 (2,356 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Nationals are 9-4 (.692) against the run line (66.2% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .440.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,696 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets have answered-back in just 19% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .258 (3,148 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .343 (4,187 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 257 of 2,762 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,140 of 11,777 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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