- The Diamondbacks are -190 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-190) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 93-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 83-78 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 5-5, 4.21 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 10-10, 4.80 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -125 | O 9 -120 | +155 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +105 | U 9 +100 | -190 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 50 games (+27.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.35 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 41 games (+36.40 Units / 89% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+18.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+12.05 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 84 games (+22.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 80 away games (+17.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 105 games (+31.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 104 games (+15.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+12.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 83-78 against the Run Line (+8.2 Units / 4.08% ROI).
- 93-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.4 Units / 4.74% ROI
- 82-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI
- 75-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -16 Units / -8.97% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 83-78 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -0.94% ROI).
- 88-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 2.98% ROI
- 91-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +19.75 Units / 11.07% ROI
- 64-91 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.85 Units / -20.38% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
| Martin Perez (SD) | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (75 Total Bases / 112 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .429 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .375 (42-for-112) against Martin Perez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .259 — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.088 (122 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .751 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (423/878) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has walked 12 of 273 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .287 (73-for-254) against Brandon Pfaadt when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — eighth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (522/738) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OPS of .864 (165 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .706 — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 27-20 (.574) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 17-12 (.586) after a road loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Padres are 28-20 (.583) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Padres are 72-58 (.554) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are 20-16 (.556) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Diamondbacks are 25-15 (.625) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Diamondbacks are 42-43 (.494) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Diamondbacks are 22-18 (.550) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 277 strikeouts in 1,615 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .276 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 74 strikeouts in 519 PA’s (14%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Padres are batting .384 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .345 (3,037 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Diamondbacks are batting .274 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .313 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .161 against Padres pitchers this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (7,846 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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