- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Padres are 37-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-33 ATS.
Padres vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 4-6, 3.67 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-1, 1.80 ERA
Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 +100 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -185 |
Padres vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+21.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+19.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 49 games (+18.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+16.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+17.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+16.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 away games (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.65 Units / 76% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 58 games (+21.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 56 games (+21.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 55 games (+20.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 29 games at home (+19.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 56 games (+17.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 37-40 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -0.75% ROI).
- 37-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -11.69% ROI
- 38-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -4.15% ROI
- 38-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -4.52% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 40-33 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 7.95% ROI).
- 49-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.85 Units / 12.49% ROI
- 32-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -9.64% ROI
- 36-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.69% ROI
Phillies vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Phillies vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron allowed a batting average of just .190 vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 88th Percentile and .277 vs left-handed batters this season (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 18th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed an OBP of just .074 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .301 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (17/92) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of just .517 (165 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — 91st Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .087 (14-for-161) against Ranger Suarez with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .283 (176 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .483 — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .283 (87 Total Bases / 307 ABs) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .148 (17-for-115) against Ranger Suarez’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 7-21 (.250) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Padres are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .060.
The Padres are 89-17 (.840) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Padres are just 10-153 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 4-18 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .060.
The Phillies are 5-16 (.238) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .111.
The Phillies are 43-5 (.896) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Phillies are 7-1 (.875) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OPS of .750 (1,949 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .375 (361 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Padres are batting .276 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .326 (6,430 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies have scored first in 77% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,553 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Phillies are batting .261 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 65% at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 21 of 146 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (17 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .122 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies have won 54% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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