- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Phillies vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Red Sox TV Channel: TBS | NSPA | NESN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-175) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+145) on Tuesday, June 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Phillies are 45-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 30-36 ATS.
Phillies vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 7-3, 2.24 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 2-5, 3.53 ERA
Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -175 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | +145 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 63.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 18 away games (+21.00 Units / 117% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+13.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.65 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+18.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+14.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 23 games (+11.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games (+20.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 48 games (+19.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 48 games (+19.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 49 games (+18.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+15.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 66 games (+4.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 37-28 against the Run Line (+10.15 Units / 13.02% ROI).
- 45-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +15 Units / 13.83% ROI
- 27-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -14.62% ROI
- 34-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 5.66% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 30-36 against the Run Line (-11.9 Units / -13.28% ROI).
- 33-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.87% ROI
- 28-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -12.18% ROI
- 34-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 5.02% ROI
Red Sox vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +120 |
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .127 (18-for-142) against Zack Wheeler this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .183 (153 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed a slugging percentage of just .197 (28 Total Bases / 142 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 98th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .380 (154 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .654 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (26/81) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 17% (6/35) against Kutter Crawford when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .135 (5 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 67% (402/601) vs left-handed batters this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 84th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Phillies are 8-4 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Phillies are 3-14 (.176) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .060.
The Phillies are 7-11 (.389) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are just 4-168 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 25-37 (.403) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Red Sox are just 1-22 (.043) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Red Sox are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .314 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .330 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .777 (2,755 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 193 strikeouts in 673 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 931 strikeouts in 3,798 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,798 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .131 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 37 of 591 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 169 of 2,443 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 68 times since last season — fewest in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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