- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Phillies vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Red Sox TV Channel: WCAU | NESN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Phillies are 46-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 30-37 ATS.
Phillies vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 3-3, 2.61 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 3-4, 3.40 ERA
Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -115 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +100 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 away games (+20.00 Units / 105% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+16.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+10.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 51 games (+21.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 49 games (+20.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 50 games (+19.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 49 games (+18.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 67 games (+3.05 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 38-28 against the Run Line (+11.15 Units / 14.12% ROI).
- 46-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +16 Units / 14.55% ROI
- 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -15.91% ROI
- 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 6.96% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 30-37 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -14.43% ROI).
- 33-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -6.03% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -13.49% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 6.3% ROI
Red Sox vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (32/45) against Cristopher Sanchez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (50/79) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (125/201) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (75/122) against Cristopher Sanchez in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 61% (11 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .166 (458 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 99th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 48% (13/27) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .116 (13-for-112) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 7-11 (.389) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .156.
The Phillies are 3-14 (.176) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .061.
The Phillies are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Phillies are 8-4 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
The Red Sox are just 0-12 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Red Sox are just 4-169 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 1-29 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .330 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .381 (278 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Phillies hitters are slugging .445 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 197 strikeouts in 680 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .428 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .419 against RHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .131 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,584 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 39 of 600 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 171 of 2,479 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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