- The Astros are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Wednesday, July 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Pirates are 55-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 54-53 ATS.
Pirates vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jake Woodford 0-2, 10.81 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 9-5, 3.42 ERA
Pirates vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -105 | +180 |
| Astros | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -115 | -225 |
Pirates vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 64.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+14.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 games at home (+21.50 Units / 90% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+20.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+14.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+13.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 63 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 63 games (+9.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 59-48 against the Run Line (+8.11 Units / 5.82% ROI).
- 55-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 2.01% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.5 Units / -10.52% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.08 Units / 2.64% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 54-53 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 1.1% ROI).
- 55-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -7.76% ROI
- 43-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.5 Units / -20.05% ROI
- 61-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.7 Units / 11.57% ROI
Astros vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Astros vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Astros vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Woodford (CWS) | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +115 |
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 7.5 +130 | 7.5 -175 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Woodford has limited playing time.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (189/311) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 74% (56/76) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (556/1,203) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .456 (31-for-68) against Framber Valdez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates are 16-10 (.615) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Pirates are just 12-17 (.414) after a home win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Pirates are just 80-110 (.421) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Pirates are 16-12 (.571) after a road loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros are just 0-39 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are just 3-9 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Astros are 71-53 (.573) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Astros are 10-6 (.625) after a win as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .655 (2,942 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .493 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 850 strikeouts in 4,809 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 529 strikeouts in 2,959 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,465/10,299 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,510 of 16,565 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this month (24 games) — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Astros pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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