- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 74-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 69-88 ATS.
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+13.55 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+13.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 44 games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Johan Oviedo | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 115 games (+16.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 games (+15.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 129 games (+10.49 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+7.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 60 games (+7.20 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 100 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 games (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.12 Units / 20% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 80-77 against the Run Line (-15.85 Units / -7.64% ROI).
- 74-83 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 4.93% ROI
- 85-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.5 Units / 6.66% ROI
- 67-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -26.2 Units / -15.15% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 69-88 against the Run Line (-25.55 Units / -13.29% ROI).
- 88-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -0.85% ROI
- 70-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -6.47% ROI
- 74-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -1.82% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (403/754) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Johan Oviedo allowed a batting average of just .164 vs right-handed batters (tied for sixth best)– 93rd Percentile and .292 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (tied for fourth worst among qualified SPs)– ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (19/120) against Johan Oviedo with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has walked 60 of 371 batters (16%) versus the top of the order since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (161/269) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has a strike rate of just 61% (2,287/3,743) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (270/522) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .258 (32-for-124) against Ranger Suarez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .342 — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 56-79 (.415) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Pirates are 33-7 (.825) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Pirates are 13-6 (.684) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Pirates are 30-9 (.769) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 7-61 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 19-114 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 50-36 (.581) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Phillies are 56-37 (.602) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .538.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .505 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Pirates are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 929 strikeouts in 3,696 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .431 (122 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Phillies are batting just .126 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .175.
Phillies hitters are slugging .430 since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,167 of 12,282 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 10 of 221 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 870 times this season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Bailey Falter (Pirates): Neck, D15
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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