- The Reds are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Vincent Velasquez
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-135) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 1-1 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +110 |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -135 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Velasquez | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Velasquez | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 83 away games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 1-1 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -18.18% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 10% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.38% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 1-1 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 20% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -14.04% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.38% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Vince Velasquez allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.9 MPH (220 batted balls) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.6 — 0 Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .368 (143 Total Bases / 389 ABs) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .267 — first Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.393 (162 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the 2020 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 1.063 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (166/485) against Vince Velasquez since the 2021 season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 13rd, 2022 — tied with Shohei Ohtani for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft threw fastballs 77% of the time (989/1,286) in non-two strike counts in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft threw fastballs 75% of the time (604/801) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 99-73 (.576) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Pirates are just 52-110 (.321) on the road since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Pirates were just 52-37 (.584) when allowing 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds are just 40-54 (.426) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Reds were just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters had an OPS of just .635 (2,999 PA’s) on the road in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
The Reds won just 57% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,190 of 12,367 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers walked 584 of 6,227 batters (9%) in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates allowed 1.70 runs per game (273/161) in late innings in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 260 of 2,867 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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