- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Blue Jays TV Channel: NESN | RSN | TVA | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Monday, September 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Red Sox are 78-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 77-79 ATS.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-10, 3.22 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 10-13, 4.17 ERA
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -110 | -105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -110 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 45 games (+18.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Addison Barger has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+16.90 Units / 211% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 50 games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+11.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+8.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 75 away games (+5.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games at home (+16.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 73-83 against the Run Line (-19.75 Units / -9.57% ROI).
- 78-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.7 Units / -4.54% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.15 Units / -7.72% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 77-79 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -7.71% ROI).
- 73-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.05 Units / -9.01% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.27% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.2 Units / -7.71% ROI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (283/508) against Tanner Houck this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (162/278) against Tanner Houck this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 76% of the time (1,077/1,425) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (54/92) against Tanner Houck when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (179 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 80.7
Chris Bassitt has averaged 70.9 MPH on curveballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 79.6 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (35/220) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 66 of Chris Bassitt’s 354 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 4-55 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Red Sox are just 5-204 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 57-198 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Red Sox are just 16-65 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 40-34 (.541) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 16-37 (.302) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Blue Jays are 78-31 (.716) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Blue Jays are just 14-123 (.102) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .388 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 501 strikeouts in 1,780 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,976 strikeouts in 10,366 PA’s (19%) in righty-righty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting just .229 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Blue Jays hitters have just 811 strikeouts in 4,029 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .743 (14,189 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 90 of 1,402 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 195 of 2,837 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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