- The Mariners are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+140) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-165) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -115 | +140 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -165 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s game with 60.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 away games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Dominic Canzone has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.20 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+2.43 Units / 76% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 54% (266/497) on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (86/485) versus Brayan Bello in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (109/173) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 60% (138/230) against Brayan Bello in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo induced opposing hitters to ground into just 2 double plays in 108 opportunities (2%) in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 68% of the time (984/1,445) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 62% of the time (1,996/3,207) in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 61% of the time (639/1,043) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox were just 17-27 (.386) after a home loss in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 22-14 (.611) after a home win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Red Sox were 60-4 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox were just 16-70 (.186) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 31-30 (.508) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Mariners are 84-13 (.866) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 83-27 (.755) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Mariners were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters had an OPS of .797 (3,068 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters struck out 422 times in 1,624 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mariners batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers threw over to first base 120 times in the 2023 season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 97 of 1,455 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 3.42 (744.0 IP) at home in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Mariners pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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