- The Cubs (70-86) are -160 favorites vs the Reds (60-96)
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-4), 4.17 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (3-5), 3.23 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-160) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 60-96 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 78-78 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | O 7 -105 | +135 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -115 | -160 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jesus Quiroz | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -160 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-83 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.37% ROI).
- 60-96 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.2 Units / -12.1% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.33% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.22% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -6.13% ROI).
- 70-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 63-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.15 Units / -15.21% ROI
- 81-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 7.01% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (95/154) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .337 (58-for-172) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (24/184) against Graham Ashcraft when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (318/423) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 55 opportunities (24%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 7 double plays in 16 opportunities (44%) this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has struck out just 7% (4/54) of right-handed batters he faced this month (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of just .739 (84 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 1.032 — 95th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 5-75 (.062) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 58-78 (.426) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Reds are just 11-73 (.131) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Reds are just 11-41 (.212) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 34-44 (.436) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Cubs are just 11-14 (.440) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .245 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .554.
The Reds are batting just .299 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Reds are batting just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.
The Reds are batting just .246 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 381 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Cubs are batting .370 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 109 of 1,014 batters (11%) this month (27 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,414 of 14,319 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,201 of 12,194 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 18% of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,121 of 12,158 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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