Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cubs (70-86) are -160 favorites vs the Reds (60-96)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-4), 4.17 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (3-5), 3.23 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-160) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 60-96 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 78-78 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -155O 7 -105+135
Cubs -1.5 +125U 7 -115-160

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ian Happ 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +1100 0.5

Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Ian Happ 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jesus Quiroz 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Ian Happ 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
Graham Ashcraft 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-83 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.37% ROI).

  • 60-96 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.2 Units / -12.1% ROI
  • 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.33% ROI
  • 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.22% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -6.13% ROI).

  • 70-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.64% ROI
  • 63-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.15 Units / -15.21% ROI
  • 81-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 7.01% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (95/154) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .337 (58-for-172) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (24/184) against Graham Ashcraft when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (318/423) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 55 opportunities (24%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 7 double plays in 16 opportunities (44%) this month (5 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has struck out just 7% (4/54) of right-handed batters he faced this month (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of just .739 (84 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 1.032 — 95th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 5-75 (.062) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Reds are just 58-78 (.426) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Reds are just 11-73 (.131) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Reds are just 11-41 (.212) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 34-44 (.436) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Cubs are just 11-14 (.440) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

Reds hitters are slugging just .245 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .554.

The Reds are batting just .299 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Reds are batting just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

The Reds are batting just .246 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 381 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Cubs are batting .370 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds pitchers have walked 109 of 1,014 batters (11%) this month (27 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,414 of 14,319 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,201 of 12,194 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 18% of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,121 of 12,158 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.