- The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Reds are 76-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-77 ATS.
Reds vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Jakob Junis 4-0, 2.63 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 2-3, 4.77 ERA
Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -115 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -105 | -150 |
Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+20.75 Units / 208% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+14.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 games (+25.60 Units / 135% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 47 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 140 games (+13.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 143 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 52 away games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 142 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.25 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+15.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 91 of their last 158 games (+12.45 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 73 games at home (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+0.93 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 88-70 against the Run Line (+9.2 Units / 4.38% ROI).
- 76-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -3.21% ROI
- 73-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -7.19% ROI
- 77-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -1.99% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 81-77 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 3.24% ROI).
- 91-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.45 Units / 6.07% ROI
- 69-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.15 Units / -10.41% ROI
- 79-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 1.76% ROI
Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo (CLE) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
| Jakob Junis (CIN) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jakob Junis has a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (174/234) this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
30 of Jakob Junis’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season — most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Jakob Junis has walked 53 of 1,080 batters (5%) since the 2022 season — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
8 of Jakob Junis’ 25 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Cantillo has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 87.1.
Joey Cantillo has a strikeout rate of 37% (22 SO in 60 PAs) this month (3 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Joey Cantillo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to September 9th — Jakob Junis has the longest active streak at 6.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (8-for-56) against Joey Cantillo this month (3 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 96th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 58-65 (.472) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 80-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are just 9-16 (.360) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Guardians are 75-2 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
Reds hitters have 2,153 strikeouts in 8,711 PA’s (25%) against RHP since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have a swing rate of 64% with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .203 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians have allowed 0.87 runs per game (138/158) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians pitchers have walked 7 of 195 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Reds vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
