Rockies vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 21, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Phillies are -350 favorites vs the Rockies
  • Rockies starting pitcher: Noah Davis
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Colorado Rockies (+270) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-350) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).

The Rockies vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Rockies are 6-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 8-12 ATS.

Rockies vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rockies+2.5 -130O 9 -120+270
Phillies -2.5 +110U 9 +100-350

Rockies vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.40 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Ryan McMahon has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+14.95 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.70 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.70 Units / 96% ROI)
  • Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.35 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies vs Rockies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Cron 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Elias Diaz 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Phillies vs Rockies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Cron 0.5 -160 0.5 +120
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Elias Diaz 0.5 -155 0.5 +115
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Phillies vs Rockies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
C.J. Cron 0.5 +210 0.5 -275
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Elias Diaz 0.5 +280 0.5 -400
Charlie Blackmon 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Phillies vs Rockies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 6.5 -125 6.5 -105
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 3% ROI)

Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 5-15 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -49.43% ROI).

  • 6-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -29.66% ROI
  • 10-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -6.1% ROI
  • 10-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -2.13% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 8-12 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -30.07% ROI).

  • 8-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -28.49% ROI
  • 10-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -5.15% ROI
  • 10-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -3.46% ROI

Noah Davis has limited playing time.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has walked 35 of 900 batters (4%) since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (623/905) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (2,346/3,396) since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (11/68) against Aaron Nola this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Rockies are just 25-13 (.658) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.

The Rockies are just 36-36 (.500) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.

The Rockies are just 13-30 (.302) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rockies are just 44-27 (.620) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies

The Phillies are 15-66 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 5-2 (.714) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

The Phillies are 80-29 (.734) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Rockies are batting .283 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rockies are batting .281 at home since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rockies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Phillies are batting .299 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.

The Phillies are batting .216 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .154.

Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .345 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .419 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rockies pitchers have walked 21 of 173 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 7 double plays in 135 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (109.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .277 against Phillies pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .260 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Phillies vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
  • Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • Nicholas Nelson (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
  • Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Left Tricep, D15
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
  • Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Elbow, D10
  • Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
  • Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): Knee, D15
  • Germán Márquez (Rockies): Forearm, D15
  • Randal Grichuk (Rockies): Hernia, D10
  • Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
  • Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.