- The Red Sox (69-74) are -200 favorites vs the Royals (57-87)
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (3-8), 5.51 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (11-1), 2.69 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-200) on Friday, September 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Royals vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are ATS.
Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 +100 | +165 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -120 | -200 |
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Friday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 22 away games (+16.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 27 away games (+15.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 away games (+14.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+13.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+19.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 57 games (+17.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+13.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Red Sox vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tommy Pham | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
| Jon Heasley | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 90 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 33 away games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+11.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 123 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (435/764) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (24/149) against Jon Heasley when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strikeout rate of just 10% (2 SO in 21 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strikeout rate of just 11% (9 SO in 85 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 21% — second Percentile.
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has not walked any of the 49 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 82% of Michael Wacha’s pitches (41/50) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha’s has 12 strikeouts and no walks — tied for best in MLB K:BB ratio over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.9 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 82% of Michael Wacha’s pitches (41/50) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 4-36 (.100) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 23-46 (.333) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Royals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 34-41 (.453) at home this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are just 4-54 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Red Sox are just 3-57 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 610 strikeouts in 3,100 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .981 (2,171 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals hitters are slugging just .537 with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .600.
Royals hitters have just 711 strikeouts in 3,561 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
25% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .754 (8,058 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have walked 527 of 5,561 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 235 of 2,686 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.16 (549.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.62 (649.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
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