Twins vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 03, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Monday, April 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Twins vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Twins are 3-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-3 ATS.

Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +135O 8 -115-125
Marlins +1.5 -165U 8 -105+105

Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
  • Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Gordon 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Byron Buxton 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Trevor Larnach 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +1000 0.5
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Gordon 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Byron Buxton 0.5 -190 0.5 +140
Trevor Larnach 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -140 0.5 +105

Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Gordon 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Byron Buxton 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Trevor Larnach 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +280 0.5 -400

Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Mahle 4.5 -135 4.5 +105
Cueto 4.5 +120 4.5 -160
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 84 away games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 166 games (+8.10 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 3-0 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 106.67% ROI).

  • 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 64.52% ROI
  • 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -36.76% ROI
  • 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 29.69% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -59.4% ROI).

  • 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -50.59% ROI
  • 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -51.16% ROI
  • 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 42.22% ROI

Opponents had a swing rate of just 32% (103/326) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% (135/505) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents had a swing rate of just 38% (192/507) against Tyler Mahle on sliders in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 16% (26/161) against Tyler Mahle in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a miss rate of just 14% (34/243) against Johnny Cueto with runners in scoring position in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Johnny Cueto has a strikeout rate of just 9% (7 SO in 76 PAs) in late innings since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Hitters chased 192 of Johnny Cueto’s 513 fastballs out of the zone (chase rate of 37%) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Johnny Cueto located his fastball inside 50% of the time (524/1,057) in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins were just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Twins are just 130-8 (.942) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Marlins are just 104-18 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.

The Marlins were just 33-65 (.337) when underdogs in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Marlins are just 78-134 (.368) when underdogs since the 2021 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.

The Marlins were just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins have hit 193 balls in play with an exit velocity over 110 MPH since the 2021 season — 4th most in MLB.

The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins hitters have 835 strikeouts in 3,035 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters slugged just .325 against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .633 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Marlins pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
  • Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.