- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle
- Marlins starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Monday, April 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 3-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 1-3 ATS.
Twins vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -105 | +105 |
Twins vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Marlins vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Marlins vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Cueto | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 84 away games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 166 games (+8.10 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 3-0 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 106.67% ROI).
- 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 64.52% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -36.76% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 29.69% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -59.4% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -50.59% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.2 Units / -51.16% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 42.22% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a swing rate of just 32% (103/326) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% (135/505) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 38% (192/507) against Tyler Mahle on sliders in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 16% (26/161) against Tyler Mahle in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 14% (34/243) against Johnny Cueto with runners in scoring position in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has a strikeout rate of just 9% (7 SO in 76 PAs) in late innings since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Hitters chased 192 of Johnny Cueto’s 513 fastballs out of the zone (chase rate of 37%) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Johnny Cueto located his fastball inside 50% of the time (524/1,057) in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 130-8 (.942) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 104-18 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins were just 33-65 (.337) when underdogs in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Marlins are just 78-134 (.368) when underdogs since the 2021 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Marlins were just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins have hit 193 balls in play with an exit velocity over 110 MPH since the 2021 season — 4th most in MLB.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 835 strikeouts in 3,035 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters slugged just .325 against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .633 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Marlins pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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