- The Rangers (38-43) are -125 favorites vs the Twins (47-39)
- Twins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer (4-2), 3.03 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez (7-2), 2.34 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-125) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Twins vs Rangers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 47-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 48-33 ATS.
Twins vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | O 8 +100 | +105 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -120 | -125 |
Twins vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 73.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 105% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+4.70 Units / 94% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+4.65 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+8.05 Units / 54% ROI)
Rangers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Rangers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Rangers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Charlie Culberson | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jonah Heim | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Rangers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
| Devin Smeltzer | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+10.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 69 games (+6.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+5.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 70 games (+19.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 61 games (+4.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+2.33 Units / 8% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 39-47 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -9.3% ROI).
- 47-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 3.17% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -2.1% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 48-33 against the Run Line (+11.1 Units / 10.35% ROI).
- 38-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.2% ROI
- 35-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -7.32% ROI
- 38-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.39% ROI
Devin Smeltzer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (4/20) against Devin Smeltzer — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — third Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer has induced opposing hitters to ground into 7 double plays in 31 opportunities (23%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (23/143) against Devin Smeltzer this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (63/340) against Devin Smeltzer this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Martín Pérez: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Martin Perez this season is 427.5 feet — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 398.5
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .184 (14 Total Bases / 76 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .426 — 98th Percentile.
Martin Perez has a strikeout rate of 28% (24 SO in 85 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (12-for-76) against Martin Perez on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Twins are just 2-8 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Twins are just 40-6 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Twins are 42-13 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Twins are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rangers are just 28-6 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Rangers are just 36-37 (.493) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Rangers are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Rangers are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .583 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Twins hitters are slugging .434 against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Twins hitters have 46 extra-base hits out of 90 total hits (51%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters are slugging .615 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .294 (7,677 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rangers hitters are slugging just .380 against RHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (6,215 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Rangers hitters have drawn 468 walks in 6,215 PA’s (7%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 66 of 722 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Rangers have won just just 15% of the time at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rangers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Bush (Rangers): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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