- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: BSNO | NESN | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-140) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Sunday, September 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 5:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Twins are against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Zebby Matthews 1-3, 6.31 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 8-15, 4.21 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -120 | -140 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 +100 | +120 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 34 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 88 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 25% (79/317) against Pablo Lopez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (135/386) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% (92/188) against Pablo Lopez in two-strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 83rd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 30% (226/745) against Pablo Lopez this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 84th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.011 (88 Total Bases / 87 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .590 — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .783 (307 Total Bases / 392 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .573 — 0 Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.502 (108 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.033 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (58/177) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are 62-26 (.705) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Twins are just 8-14 (.364) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Twins are 206-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 32-135 (.192) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Red Sox are just 4-55 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 16-65 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .724 (5,675 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Twins hitters are slugging .447 at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Twins hitters are slugging .229 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .757 (3,777 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .389 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 495 strikeouts in 1,756 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have been successful in just 68% of their sacrifice bunt attempts since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 79%.
Red Sox hitters have 863 strikeouts in 3,334 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 403 of 5,733 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 1,314 of 17,803 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 89 of 1,384 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 437 of 5,860 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 194 of 2,819 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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