- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Royals starting pitcher: Brad Keller
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Minnesota Twins (-145) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+120) on Sunday, April 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 0-2 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -110 | -145 |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | U 9 -110 | +120 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.70 Units / 190% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Salvador Perez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Salvador Perez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Brad Keller | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Brad Keller | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 83 away games (+0.50 Units / 1% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 2-0 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 102.5% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 62.5% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 93.02% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 0-2 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 93.02% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (134/461) against Joe Ryan since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 29% (115/396) against Joe Ryan in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Joe Ryan has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.1 innings he’s appeared — Shohei Ohtani has the longest active streak at 55.0.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 28% (67/239) against Joe Ryan in non-two strike counts in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .363 (41 GB hits out of 113 GBs) against Brad Keller with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.2 MPH on the 281 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 87.2.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .431 (25 GB hits out of 58 GBs) against Brad Keller with runners in scoring position in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Brad Keller had a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (334/616) in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 22-67 (.247) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals were just 4-41 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals were just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Royals were just 26-55 (.321) on the road in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Royals are just 25-76 (.248) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins have scored 1.16 runs per game (375/322) in late innings since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins have scored first in 61% of their road games since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,308 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .304 (1,492 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Royals won only 32% of their road games in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers walked 126 of 1,420 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,180 of 12,376 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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