- The Yankees (83-54) are -145 favorites vs the Twins (68-67)
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (7-4), 3.09 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (9-4), 2.67 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+120) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-145) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Twins vs Yankees Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 68-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 59-75 ATS.
Twins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -185 | O 7 -120 | +120 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +150 | U 7 +100 | -145 |
Twins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 39 of his last 53 games (+16.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 51 games (+11.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 away games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+13.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 45% ROI)
Yankees vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Yankees vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Yankees vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Yankees vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
| Nestor Cortes | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 133 games (+12.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 65 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.65 Units / 3% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 61-72 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -8.24% ROI).
- 68-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -3.09% ROI
- 63-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.47% ROI
- 60-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -6.48% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 59-75 against the Run Line (-19.05 Units / -12.19% ROI).
- 82-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 61-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -9.46% ROI
- 68-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.47% ROI
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (389/756) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
The average home run distance against Sonny Gray this season is 417.4 feet — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 398.2
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (106 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (561/1,101) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 59% of the time (306/515) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 62% of the time (230/368) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (486/889) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
28 of Nestor Cortes’ 80 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Twins are just 58-7 (.892) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Twins are just 8-46 (.148) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees are 48-20 (.706) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Yankees are 15-10 (.600) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Yankees are 55-9 (.859) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Yankees are 7-43 (.140) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .600 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
The Twins are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Twins hitters have put 40% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Twins have 302 barreled balls this season — 4th most in MLB.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 110 walks in 1,104 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 360 of 5,024 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 852 of 11,023 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, Day-to-Day
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, D10
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
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