Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 28

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Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers looks on during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Sept. 29, 2023, in Baltimore. With the Red Sox ramping up at the start of spring training, Devers made it clear Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024, that he felt the franchise should have done more to improve the roster over the winter.
AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 28, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
  • Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: ESPN

The New York Yankees (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Yankees are 61-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 48-55 ATS.

Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 10-7, 4.25 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-6, 2.70 ERA

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +140O 9 +100-115
Red Sox +1.5 -165U 9 -120-105

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 away games (+21.80 Units / 182% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.30 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 29 games (+24.10 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.49 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 away games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 103 games (+7.35 Units / 5% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 55-51 against the Run Line (+10.1 Units / 8.08% ROI).

  • 61-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.95% ROI
  • 56-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 4.28% ROI
  • 46-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -13.32% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 48-55 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -10.74% ROI).

  • 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.74% ROI
  • 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -2.08% ROI
  • 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -5.95% ROI

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 +240 0.5 -300
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 +500 0.5 -700
Connor Wong (BOS) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Ben Rice (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Rob Refsnyder (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
DJ LeMahieu (NYY) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Connor Wong (BOS) 0.5 -200 0.5 +155

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 -105 0.5 -125
Ben Rice (NYY) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Connor Wong (BOS) 0.5 +155 0.5 -210

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tanner Houck (BOS) 4.5 -150 4.5 +115
Carlos Rodon (NYY) 7.5 +115 7.5 -150

Carlos Rodon has an ERA of 7.91 (33.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.74 — third Percentile.

Carlos Rodon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (83 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 80.8

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (108/318) against Carlos Rodon this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (66/173) against Carlos Rodon this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .261 (64 Total Bases / 245 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .400 — 97th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (111/191) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .457 (180 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 97th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 77% of the time (756/984) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 12-16 (.429) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Yankees are 62-20 (.756) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .622.

The Yankees are 19-10 (.655) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .458.

The Yankees are 25-20 (.556) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 30-31 (.492) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Red Sox are just 27-108 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.

The Red Sox are just 52-171 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Red Sox are 48-10 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Yankees hitters have drawn 404 walks in 3,806 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 130 walks in 1,089 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 242 walks in 2,257 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 30 walks in 206 PA’s (15%) against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Red Sox hitters have 341 strikeouts in 1,197 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .369 (517 PA’s) against RHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .446 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .438 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Yankees have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 57 of 929 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Red Sox have allowed 9.33 runs per game (56/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

The Red Sox have allowed 7.89 runs per game (71/9) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 275 of 3,905 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
  • Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
  • Jonathan Loaisiga (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Oblique, 7-Day IL
  • Everson Pereira (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Clayton Beeter (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
  • Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees): Lat, 60-Day IL
  • Jon Berti (New York Yankees): Calf, 60-Day IL
  • Ian Hamilton (New York Yankees): Lat, 15-Day IL
  • Anthony Rizzo (New York Yankees): Forearm, 60-Day IL
  • Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.