- The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: ESPN
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Yankees are 61-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 48-55 ATS.
Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 10-7, 4.25 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-6, 2.70 ERA
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +140 | O 9 +100 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -120 | -105 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 away games (+21.80 Units / 182% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.30 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 29 games (+24.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.49 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 away games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 103 games (+7.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 55-51 against the Run Line (+10.1 Units / 8.08% ROI).
- 61-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.95% ROI
- 56-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 4.28% ROI
- 46-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -13.32% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 48-55 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -10.74% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.74% ROI
- 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -2.08% ROI
- 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -5.95% ROI
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has an ERA of 7.91 (33.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.74 — third Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (83 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 80.8
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (108/318) against Carlos Rodon this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (66/173) against Carlos Rodon this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .261 (64 Total Bases / 245 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .400 — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (111/191) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .457 (180 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 77% of the time (756/984) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 12-16 (.429) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Yankees are 62-20 (.756) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Yankees are 19-10 (.655) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Yankees are 25-20 (.556) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 30-31 (.492) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Red Sox are just 27-108 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Red Sox are just 52-171 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Red Sox are 48-10 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 404 walks in 3,806 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 130 walks in 1,089 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 242 walks in 2,257 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 30 walks in 206 PA’s (15%) against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 341 strikeouts in 1,197 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .369 (517 PA’s) against RHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .446 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .438 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Yankees have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 57 of 929 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Red Sox have allowed 9.33 runs per game (56/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
The Red Sox have allowed 7.89 runs per game (71/9) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 275 of 3,905 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Loaisiga (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Everson Pereira (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Clayton Beeter (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Jon Berti (New York Yankees): Calf, 60-Day IL
- Ian Hamilton (New York Yankees): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Anthony Rizzo (New York Yankees): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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