- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Tuesday, April 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Yankees vs Twins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 13-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 13-10 ATS.
Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -210 | O 6.5 -105 | +105 |
| Twins | -1.5 +170 | U 6.5 -115 | -125 |
Yankees vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Twins vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Twins vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Twins vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Joe Ryan | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+2.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 11-12 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 4.44% ROI).
- 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.76% ROI
- 7-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -42.47% ROI
- 16-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 33.07% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 13-10 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 9.82% ROI).
- 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.91% ROI
- 8-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -24.61% ROI
- 13-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 16.4% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (9/49) against Nestor Cortes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (15/64) against Nestor Cortes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (4/25) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (5/27) against Nestor Cortes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 60% (106/177) against Joe Ryan this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has struck out 41% (19/46) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed an OBP of just .115 (52 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 96th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strikeout rate of 30% (29 SO in 95 PAs) this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 90th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees are 20-31 (.392) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 12-48 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 19-26 (.422) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .291.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-33 (.283) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 7-70 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 30 walks in 183 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.089 (144 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Yankees hitters have drawn 192 walks in 1,732 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .213 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .225 (130 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 188 of their 859 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins are batting just .144 with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Twins hitters are slugging just .306 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 11 of 205 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 58 of 826 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Oblique, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D15
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